The OPEC+ group has struggled to manage oil supply and prices this year. First, there was overproduction from several members, undermining the cuts from the other producers in the pact. Then came the summer and the first actual consumption data for the first and second quarters of the year, showing that China’s oil demand growth is nowhere near OPEC’s expectations. Toward the end of the year, just as the cartel and its allies announced they would postpone the start of the easing of the production cuts to January 2025, they now have the wildest card on the market of all—President-elect Donald Trump. China’s weak oil demand has already thrown OPEC+ off track in its supply-management policies and continues to defy OPEC forecasts with underwhelming crude consumption and imports. The group now has to contend with some policies President-elect Trump has promised to introduce, including easier permitting for fossil fuel projects, import tariffs, and a more rigid stance toward Iran. China Weakness China has already undermined the OPEC+ alliance’s policy. The group is cutting production, but demand has been weaker than expected amid slower Chinese economic growth, the property crisis undermining construction activities and diesel consumption, and the surge in electric vehicle (EV) […]