By Duop Chak Wuol Egypt’s stance against Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has escalated, raising the possibility of military conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa. Egypt has openly aligned itself with Somalia and covertly with Eritrea in opposition to Ethiopia. The GERD is crucial to Ethiopia, which contributes at least 85% of the Nile’s waters. This makes the dam vital for its economic development. Egypt’s reliance on outdated agreements—the 1929 treaty and the 1959 accord—does not reflect the current geopolitical realities or the needs of upstream countries such as Ethiopia. The old treaties, combined with recent shifts in regional alliances and rising tensions, have created conditions that could lead to a destabilizing conflict over Nile waters. From July 2014 to August 2022, South Sudan and Uganda were Egypt’s regional allies, supporting Cairo’s strategy. However, Egypt faced challenges in implementing its strategy against Ethiopia in South Sudan due to significant local opposition, particularly from the Nuer community, which has historical ties to Ethiopia. Recently, Somalia and Eritrea, once unlikely allies, have shifted their stances due to changing geopolitical dynamics. Their alignment with Egypt is driven by two key factors. First, Somaliland—a self-declared autonomous region within Somalia that lacks international …

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