NASA data released Tuesday indicates a 3.1% probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike Earth on December 22, 2032, making it the most significant impact risk ever recorded.

Despite the rising odds, experts urge caution rather than alarm. The James Webb Space Telescope will begin detailed observations next month to refine trajectory estimates.

Key Facts About 2024 YR4

• Discovered: December 27, 2024 (El Sauce Observatory, Chile)
• Size: Estimated 40–90 meters wide
• Current Probability of Impact: 3.1% (1 in 32 chance)
• Potential Impact Zone: Eastern Pacific, South America, Atlantic, Africa, Arabian Peninsula, South Asia
• Impact Force (if it hits): Equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT (~500 times the Hiroshima bomb)

What Experts Say

While 2024 YR4 is classified as a "city-killer," it is not a global threat like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. Richard Moissl of the European Space Agency (ESA) calls it a “historic” event but stresses that it is “not a crisis.”

Next Steps

If the probability exceeds 10%, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) will issue formal recommendations for preparedness. However, experts remain confident that NASA’s DART mission and other deflection strategies could alter the asteroid's course if needed.

For now, astronomers continue monitoring, with Webb's observations in March expected to provide more clarity on the actual risk.